Investing in Luxury Watches: A Practical Guide

Introduction: When Horology Becomes a Financial Asset

The luxury watch market has undergone a profound transformation over the past decade. Long confined to the circle of passionate collectors and fine horology enthusiasts, it has progressively opened up to a new category of buyers: investors. The surge in secondary market prices between 2020 and 2022, when certain Rolex and Patek Philippe references traded at double or even triple their retail price, attracted the attention of the general public and financial media.

According to the Morgan Stanley 2025 report, the global luxury watchmaking market represents approximately 55 billion Swiss francs in retail sales, while the secondary market (pre-owned watches) now reaches 25 billion. This growth in the resale market reflects the emergence of a genuine investment market, with its own codes, benchmarks, and risks.

This guide reviews the fundamentals of horological investment: brands and models with potential, appreciation factors, buying and selling channels, applicable taxation, and pitfalls to avoid to navigate this fascinating but demanding universe with discernment.

Brands with Investment Potential

The Holy Trinity: Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet

Three houses dominate the horological investment market and concentrate the bulk of secondary market demand:

Rolex: the crowned brand is the absolute benchmark for investment watches. Its strategy of deliberately limited production, the strength of its image, and insatiable global demand make certain references assets with near-mechanical appreciation. The most sought-after models are:

• Daytona (reference 116500LN and new 126500LN): the quintessential sports chronograph, multi-year waiting list at boutiques, 50 to 100% premium on the secondary market.
• Submariner (reference 126610LN/LV): the diving icon, sustained demand, moderate but consistent premium.
• GMT-Master II (reference 126710BLRO "Pepsi," 126720VTNR "Sprite"): very strong demand, particularly for bicolor bezel versions.
• Day-Date and Datejust: reliable performers but smaller premiums, except for special dials (meteorite, onyx, mother-of-pearl).

Patek Philippe: the Geneva manufacture is considered the pinnacle of horology. Its watches reach the highest prices at auction. Key investment references are:

• Nautilus 5711 (production discontinued in 2021, replaced by the 5811): the most coveted sports reference in the world. Secondary market prices reached historic highs.
• Aquanaut 5167/5168: a sportier, more modern version of the Nautilus, in strong demand.
• Calatrava: the quintessential dress watch, a reliable performer but with slower appreciation.
• Complications and Grand Complications: perpetual calendars (5320G), minute repeaters, split-seconds chronographs. These rare pieces reach considerable prices.

Audemars Piguet: the third house of the trinity, famous for its Royal Oak designed by Gerald Genta in 1972:

• Royal Oak 15500/15510: the emblematic sports reference, strong global demand.
• Royal Oak Offshore: a more imposing version, younger audience, dynamic market.
• Royal Oak Concept and complications: exceptional pieces, confidential but highly valued market.

Outsiders to Watch

Beyond the trinity, several brands present investment potential:

• Vacheron Constantin: the Overseas and Historiques are seeing growing demand. The brand is historically undervalued relative to Patek Philippe.
• F.P. Journe: an independent watchmaker whose creations reach spectacular prices at auction. Very limited production (fewer than 1,000 pieces per year).
• A. Lange und Sohne: German high horology, renowned for exceptional finishing. The Zeitwerk and Datograph are highly sought-after references.
• Richard Mille: an ultra-luxury brand with astronomical retail prices (100,000 to several million euros). A highly speculative and elitist market.
• Omega: the Speedmaster "Moonwatch" is a reliable performer at an accessible price (5,000 to 10,000 euros). The MoonSwatch revived interest in the brand among younger audiences.

Watch Appreciation Factors

Scarcity

This is the most determining factor. Scarcity can be:

• Natural: limited production by the manufacture's capacity (case of Patek Philippe, F.P. Journe).
• Artificial: deliberate distribution restriction by the brand (case of Rolex for certain references).
• Historical: discontinued models whose market supply gradually diminishes.
• Event-driven: limited editions, special collaborations, unique pieces for charity sales.

Condition

A watch's condition directly influences its secondary market value:

• NOS (New Old Stock): brand new, never worn, in original packaging. The most sought-after condition for vintage watches.
• Excellent: carefully worn, minimal signs of wear, intact crystal, serviced movement.
• Good: visible signs of wear but no structural damage, functional movement.
• Fair to poor: deep scratches, dents, scratched crystal, movement needing service. Significant discount.

Limited Editions and Special Pieces

Limited editions, special dials, and notable collaborations generate significant premiums. A few examples:

• Rolex Daytona "Rainbow" (bezel set with multicolored sapphires): 200 to 400% premium over retail price.
• Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A-018 olive green dial (final 5711 reference): price multiplied by 3 to 5 over retail.
• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak "Jumbo Extra-Thin" in platinum: extremely limited production, record auction prices.

The Macroeconomic Context

The luxury watch market is sensitive to economic cycles and capital flows:

• Economic growth and rising equity markets: watch prices tend to rise, driven by the wealth effect.
• Recession and financial crisis: prices can fall significantly, as observed in 2008-2009.
• Chinese market: Asian demand (mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore) is an essential market driver. Chinese economic policies directly influence prices.
• Interest rates: low rates favor alternative assets, including watches. The rate increase in 2022-2024 contributed to the market correction.

The Secondary Market: Where to Buy and Sell

Online Platforms

The luxury watch secondary market has become considerably more structured thanks to digital platforms:

• Chrono24: the world's largest platform, based in Germany. Over 500,000 watches listed, "Trusted Checkout" buyer protection program. Prices are transparent and allow tracking market evolution.
• Watchfinder (Richemont group): specialist in certified pre-owned watches, with a rigorous authentication process and 2-year warranty.
• Crown & Caliber, Bob's Watches (United States): established platforms with a reliable transaction history.
• Cresus (France): the leading French player for buying and selling pre-owned luxury watches, with physical boutiques and an online platform.

Auctions

Major auction houses regularly hold sessions dedicated to horology:

• Christie's: sales in Geneva, Hong Kong, New York. The house sold the Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime for 31 million dollars in 2019, the absolute record for a watch.
• Sotheby's: regular sales, recognized expertise.
• Phillips: has become the benchmark auction house for collectible horology, with record results and a carefully curated catalogue.
• Antiquorum: a historic horology specialist, based in Geneva.

Buyer's premiums at auction generally represent 20 to 28% of the hammer price, a non-negligible cost that must be factored into the profitability calculation.

Professional Dealers and Specialist Boutiques

Authorized retailers for major brands are generally not a direct investment channel (retail prices are fixed). However, pre-owned retailers and specialized brokers can be relevant sourcing channels, provided you verify their reputation and the quality of their expertise.

Luxury Watch Taxation in France

The Applicable Regime

Luxury watches are considered "movable property" (biens meubles) by the French tax authorities. Their sale by an individual is subject to one of the following two regimes:

Option 1: The flat-rate tax on precious objects

• Rate of 6.5% of the total sale price (6% + 0.5% CRDS).
• Applicable regardless of holding period.
• Default regime when the seller cannot document the acquisition price.
• Sales below 5,000 euros are exempt.

Option 2: The capital gains regime for movable property

• Taxation at 36.2% on the effective capital gain (19% + 17.2% social contributions).
• 5% allowance per year of holding from the second year onward.
• Full exemption after 22 years of holding.
• Requires documentation of the acquisition price and date.

IFI Exemption

Like all collectibles and movable property, luxury watches are fully exempt from the Impot sur la Fortune Immobiliere (IFI). A watch portfolio worth 500,000 euros does not enter the IFI base, which constitutes an appreciable tax advantage for substantial portfolios.

Keeping Documentation

The original purchase invoice, warranty card, and any document attesting to the date and price of acquisition are essential for opting into the actual capital gains regime. Keep these documents in a safe or secure digital space. Without documentation, you will be subject by default to the 6.5% flat-rate tax.

Risks of Horological Investment

Speculative Bubbles

The luxury watch market experienced an evident bubble in 2021-2022, fueled by abundant liquidity, low interest rates, the crypto boom, and the social media effect. The correction that followed in 2023-2024 saw prices of certain references drop by 30 to 50%. The Rolex Daytona, which traded above 40,000 euros in early 2022, fell back to 25,000-28,000 euros in 2024 before stabilizing.

This correction is a reminder that the watch market does not escape speculative cycles. Investors must be prepared to endure significant volatility and should not invest capital they may need in the short term.

Evolving Tastes and Trends

Collector preferences evolve. Steel sports watches (Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe) have dominated the market for about a decade, but this trend could reverse in favor of dress watches, complications, or new brands. Investing heavily in a single reference or trend is risky.

Holding Costs

Owning a luxury watch entails recurring costs often underestimated:

• Service: a mechanical movement must be serviced every 5 to 7 years. The cost ranges from 500 euros (basic Rolex) to over 5,000 euros (Patek Philippe grand complication).
• Insurance: specific "valuable objects" insurance is recommended. Annual cost of 0.5 to 1.5% of insured value.
• Storage: a home safe or secure bank safe deposit box is essential. Bank box rental costs 100 to 300 euros per year.

Counterfeiting and Modified Watches

Beyond fake watches, the market suffers from modified watches: replaced dials (redials), aggressively polished cases (loss of material and original edges), non-authentic parts (hands, bezels, bracelets). These modifications, even when done with quality parts, significantly depreciate a watch's value among demanding collectors.

Building a Horological Investment Portfolio

Strategy for Beginners

For the beginner investor, here is a structured approach:

1. Initial budget: plan a minimum of 10,000 to 15,000 euros for a first significant piece (Rolex Submariner, Omega Speedmaster Professional, Tudor Black Bay).
2. Research: study price histories on Chrono24 ("Watch Collection" and "Price Evolution" tools), WatchCharts, and auction results.
3. Purchase: favor a recognized professional buyer (Cresus, Watchfinder, Trusted Dealer seller on Chrono24) for the first acquisition. Transaction security takes precedence over saving a few hundred euros.
4. Conservation: store the watch in optimal conditions (safe, watch winder for unworn automatic watches).
5. Patience: the optimal investment horizon is a minimum of 5 to 10 years.

Diversification

As with any investment portfolio, diversification is essential. A balanced horological portfolio could include:

• 40-50% in sports references (Rolex Daytona, Submariner, GMT-Master).
• 20-30% in haute horlogerie references (Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet).
• 10-20% in selected vintage watches (discontinued references with potential).
• 10% in "wildcards" (independent brands, limited editions, pieces with strong speculative potential).

Allocation Within Overall Wealth

Horological investment should represent only a limited fraction of wealth: 3 to 7% of financial wealth for an informed enthusiast, never more than 10%. Watches generate no current income (no dividends, no rents) and their liquidity, while improved by online platforms, remains below that of traditional financial assets.

Conclusion: A Passion Investment to Approach with Method

Investing in luxury watches is a fascinating activity that combines aesthetics, mechanics, and finance. The past performance of certain references is impressive and the depth of the secondary market offers real opportunities. But horological investment demands method, patience, and expertise. Speculative bubbles, counterfeiting, and evolving tastes constitute real risks that only a diversified and disciplined approach can manage.

For the French saver, the favorable taxation of movable property (IFI exemption, moderate flat-rate tax or full exemption after 22 years of holding) provides an additional argument in favor of this asset class. Provided you consider watches as a wealth complement and not a primary investment, luxury horology can enrich a diversified portfolio, in every sense of the word.